Influenza: the peak is reached, the epidemic is decreasing

Grippe: le pic est atteint, l'épidémie régresse

The epidemic threshold of flu has “probably been reached in all the regions of metropolitan France“, has informed on Wednesday 20 public Health France. The Sentinel network states that about 2,800 deaths are attributable to influenza since the beginning of the monitoring.

The trend is to the downside. The peak of the flu outbreak had “probably been reached in all the regions of metropolitan France, “said Wednesday the health care agency public Health France. Despite the regression started since the 4th of February, the flu continues to mobilize hospital services: 11.264 passages to the emergency room last week (against 14.294 the previous week, a decrease of 21%). The incidence rate of influenza-like illness seen in consultation of general medicine has been estimated to be 461 cases per 100,000 inhabitants on average in the past week.

At the regional level, the highest incidence rates have been observed in Auvergne, Rhône-Alpes (745 cases per 100,000 population), New Aquitaine (614 cases for 100,000 inhabitants) and in Occitania (586 cases per 100,000 population).

The Sentinel network states that about 2,800 deaths are attributable to influenza since the beginning of the monitoring.

Read also – Epidemic of influenza 2019: how long it will last?

Please note that we often speak of the “epidemic threshold” to define the beginning or the end of “official” of the epidemic. It is, however, a mathematical model of evolution. It is, therefore, not to imagine that the risk of illness will disappear overnight. Even when France is no longer “epidemic”, the flu rages until the month of April.

According to data published Wednesday 13, the influenza epidemic 2018/2019 is marked by a predominance of the virus of type A(H3N2). However, the vaccine is not very effective this year against this strain, which could lead to excess mortality. During the winter of 2016-2017, the vaccine had to protect that 20% to 30% of patients due to a late mutation. The number of flu-related deaths had been estimated at 14.400. The following year, that rate has increased to approximately 60% to 70% efficiency, which had led to 12.980 dead.

See:

Influenza: 700 more deaths in a week and a likely future rise in

Epidemic influenza: emergency saturated in some departments

What to do when you have the flu: mode of transmission, contagion, cure it, what you need to know

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