The impeachment process of Trump already marks history, according to Karine Prémont

At the dawn of the launch of her book Great American Political Affairs in Sherbrooke, Professor at the School of Applied Politics of the University of Sherbrooke Karine Prémont thinks that the impeachment process initiated by the Democrats against the American President Donald Trump marks already history.
It was pre Prémont present in his work of great American political affairs that marked the imaginary, like Watergate, the Pentagon Papers and the hostage crisis. “In the book that comes out this week, there are already two contemporary cases of dismissal: the Watergate with Richard Nixon and the Lewinsky affair with Bill Clinton,” she explains. This is an element that could be chronicled when we have the necessary perspective to evaluate all this and when the election of 2020 will be passed. That’s what we want to know, once the process is over, what does it really change for American politics? We can not know it at the moment, we have to wait for the passage of years before we can evaluate it correctly. ”

The case of Donald Trump is already historic, according to her, since it is only the fourth time in American history that such a process is initiated. “It’s a pretty exceptional event. […] It must be remembered that this is a two-step process. The first, which is taking place right now, is the House of Representatives. A vote will be taken by majority on the impeachment of the president. Once that is done, because we imagine that with the Democratic majority in the House of Representatives, Trump, presumably, will be indicted, it will go to the Senate, where there will be a two-thirds vote which will have to be taken on the condemnation or the acquittal of the president on the heads which will be determined by the room “, vulgarizes the professor.

“Since there is a Republican majority [in the Senate], one can imagine that unless there is a dramatic turning point, Trump will be acquitted,” she continues. In any case, it is the scenario at the moment that one can imagine. So that means that the 2020 presidential election will determine the significance of one or another of these proceedings. In a case where Donald Trump was deposed by the Senate, it would be historic, because it would be the first time. In the other three cases, no president was deposed by the Senate. We are not here; the scenarios do not go in this direction. ”

On-line Democracy

How does a political scientist analyze this impeachment process? “I look at it like an entomologist looks at the ants. For political scientists, it is rare to see live democratic mechanisms in action. That’s what we see. I’m too young to remember Nixon, but I remember Clinton where I watched, I followed as an interested person. I was a student, not a teacher “, describes the one who gives a course and launches her book in Sherbrooke Wednesday, 5:30 pm, at Boquébière as part of the Université populaire de Sherbrooke (UPOPS).

“It gives a little more concrete to my work, continues Karine Prémont. When I explain the impeachment procedure, when I explain the executive and legislative powers in the United States, we have something very concrete with which to work to give examples to the students. We can see how this system of surveillance and counterweight works. It’s a kind of laboratory for us, “she says, saying that she also follows this situation as a citizen, because everything that happens in the United States affects Canada and the rest of the world.

What she said…

What does the professor of the School of Applied Politics Karine Prémont think …

… of the popularity of American politics in Quebec c “I can not evaluate it in numerical or scientific terms, but I realize that there is really a strong interest in that. First, we see it in Quebec with all the media coverage of what is happening in the United States. For example, RDI and LCN covered live mid-term elections, which are not usually seen on Quebec television. We also cover a lot of debates during the Democratic primaries. The media space in the newspapers is very important in the United States. I see him in Sherbrooke when I take part in public conferences or in courses I give to UPOPS. There are always plenty of people coming and we see that they follow the news because they ask quite specific questions. There is an interest in understanding what is happening and perhaps to be reassured about what is happening. ”

… of the number of candidates for the Democratic primaries “I still find it interesting that there is such a wide variety of candidates. We see men, women, young people, older people, Latin Americans, African Americans, people with all sorts of professional backgrounds and the first gay candidate. I find it interesting and refreshing to see that the current political situation mobilizes people from as many different categories. It’s a reaction to Trump: he has gone back to many groups, disturbed several people. Obviously, this kind of situation where several candidates compete for the same position leaves a few fractions. Some infighting may be more difficult to repair. We are thinking of 2016 when Bernie Sanders’s supporters did not join Hillary Clinton when it came time to vote. We fear the same situation, but I have the impression that it will be different, it will be necessary to see. ”

… the possibility of seeing Donald Trump beaten by Republicans “He [Donald Trump] is pretty sure to win. For now, some candidates are opposed, but they have almost no chance of winning. Five or six states have canceled Republican primaries because there are no other candidates who are registered. I do not quite see what figure, suddenly, could come out of the hat and face Trump, especially in this process of dismissal which we do not know the outcome. If Trump were to be dismissed, Mike Pence, if he was still in office, would replace him and at that time, no doubt, would be the candidate for 2020. For now, it would be a bit hasty for a well-known Republican to launch and soon, it will be too late to do it. I think Republicans are caught with Trump, one way or the other this year. ”

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